GROWTH, SPATIAL CONCENTRATION AND EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS OF INDIA'S TABLE-GRAPE ECONOMY: A LONG-RUN ANALYSIS, 1988–2026

Abstract

Horticulture has become the fastest-expanding segment of Indian agriculture, yet the economics of individual high-value crops remains thinly documented. This paper examines the grape (Vitis vinifera) economy of India over nearly four decades (1987–88 to 2025–26), integrating long-run production series with state-level and destination-level trade data to assess growth performance, spatial structure and export competitiveness. Using official estimates from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare, APEDA, the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, and the FAO, the study computes compound growth rates, productivity dynamics and concentration measures. Three findings stand out. First, cultivated area and output grew rapidly (compound annual growth of 6.6% and 7.1% respectively), but yield rose at only 0.5% a year and has drifted below its late-1990s peak of about 26 MT/ha to 19.7 MT/ha in 2025–26 — a productivity paradox in which expansion has been extensive rather than intensive. Second, production is extraordinarily concentrated: Maharashtra and Karnataka together account for roughly 94% of national output, exposing the crop to correlated agro-climatic and market shocks. Third, although India ranks sixth in world grape output, it exports under a tenth of its production, export volume is volatile (falling about 21% between 2023–24 and 2024–25), and close to two-fifths of export value is routed through a single re-export hub, the Netherlands. The paper argues that yield revival, geographic diversification and cold-chain-led market widening are the binding constraints on the sector's competitiveness, and outlines targeted policy responses.